What if… Wuhan Coronavirus becomes established?

The current death rate cited is 2.2% of those infected. In typical spin doctoring, it is compared to SARS that had 9.6% [Src] so not as bad.  Alternative calculations has it around 23% of those that are hospitalized. The numbers are consistent if just 10% of those that catch it are hospitalized.

“The patients ranged in age from 22 to 92, with a median of 56 years, and were admitted to Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University from Jan. 1 to Jan 28… Over all, about 26 percent of the 138 patients needed intensive care; their median age was 66, compared with a median of 51 years for those who did not require intensive care. For this series of patients, the death rate was 4.3 percent, which is higher than the estimates coming from other parts of China.” [src]

Over 80% of the deaths are for those over 56. So the death rate for that age range is likely closer to 4.5%.

So, assuming that it gets established and that 50% of people get it each year….  we need to revise the following charts [Src]. We can recompute the annual death rate

• 55-64 goes from 1:112 for men to 1:32; women from 1:178 to 1:35
• 65-74 goes from 1:42 for men to 1:22; women from 1:65 to 1:27
• 75-84 goes from 1:15 for men to 1:11; women from 1:21 to 1:15
• 85 and over from 1:6 for men to 1:5; women from 1:7 to 1:6

Bottom Line

It would appear that once you hit 50, your life expectancy will likely be decreased by a decade.

But what about the vaccine? This is a coronavirus, we have 4 siblings that are the common cold…. I am still waiting for the vaccine against the common cold…   I recall reading long ago that they had limited success for the common cold, but the vaccine effective period was short and the work was abandoned.